Thinking in the longterm
đ #tech #Internet #psych #longtermism
Last Tended: 20.11.21
This essay is 5 of 7 essays for The Tech Progressive Writing Challenge. Join the build_ Discord to join the conversation.
The Stanford marshmallow experiment (1972) has often been used to exemplify the relation between the ability to delay gratification and general life success. The experimentâs premise: a preschooler would be left in the researcherâs obeservation room with a marshmallow. They were told if they could wait 15 minutes until the researcher came back without eating it, they would receive 2 marshmallows as a reward. These children were then tracked over their schooling years along several metrics in a longitudinal study. Those who were able to delay eating the marshmallow were reported to have generally better scores in a range of life measures such as higher SAT scores, better socialisation skills, and better stress tolerance.
There are many different related concepts to longterm outcomes, one of them being the behavioural finance notion of âtime preferenceâ i.e. how much does a consumer prioritise receiving short-term gain (âhigh time preferenceâ) over remote gain (âlow time preferenceâ). Depending on which camp youâre in, the valuation of goods change significantly. For instance, returns in the present are more highly discounted if you have a low time preference. Where you sit on the spectrum impacts your choices in investment - whether they be finances, time, hobbies or career options. The younger you are, the more time you have to recalibrate often and without as much consequence.
Turning to another related concept, we look at âlongtermismâ. Here the future is evaluated through a more ethical and moral lens, rather than financial. It also considers the benefit of humanity as whole instead of an individual perspective. Where it definitionally differs to time preference is that it believes âthe (intrinsic) value of an outcome is the same no matter what time it occursâ. Working on more immediate problems will help solve those in the far future.
Why is thinking in the longterm important?
Both concepts underpin decision-making. A choice that you make today will impact your future self. It follows that those who have a low time preference, or longtermist mindset have an ability to discount short-term discomfort for longterm success. It requires an envisioning of purpose, persistence and focus to bring the vision into fruition.
Whatâs interesting to consider is how this sits with the world currently being skewed towards instant gratification. People point to the just-in-time economy that magnifies this culture. Next-day deliveries, instantly loading Internet pages, an almost Pavlovian response to phone notifications. Not to mention claims of decreasing attention span lengths, rise in ADHD and forgetfulness now that we can offload our memory into computer assistants. Thereâs an interesting proposition that the difficulties in concentration may lead to an inability to develop the focus needed to solve dense problems. However, the noise simply makes it more difficult, but not impossible, to intentionally create this particular frame of mind.